Thursday, 8 October 2026 · XAUUSD
Day 11 · Gold
−5.7 gold pips−£0.521/2 winsBalance £365.30
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Gold rallied overnight from 4,100 to 4,143, straight into the 4,139 level (July high / 1 Oct low). The 02:00 UK rally candle left a 1-hour fair value gap (FVG) between 4,120.6 and 4,131.9.
Key levels
The plan
- 1h rejection at a level: sell the next 1h open after a wick through and close back. Medium level and no gamma rejection there, so 1R only; the 1h FVG below was the likely target.
What happened
The 03:00 UK hour wicked to 4,143.3, through the 4,139 level, and closed back below at 4,133.4. I sold 0.01 lots at the 04:00 open, 4,134.20, stop 4,145, target 1R. It pushed back up to 4,142 at one point, then dropped into the 1-hour fair value gap and hit the target at 4,123.71 at 06:46 UK: +£7.90 after commission. Then the 06:00 UK hour dropped $19 and closed at 4,117.7, below the fair value gap. I sold 0.01 lots at 4,118.44 right at the close, chasing the move near the low of a big candle with no level to sell from. It only got about $4 in profit (low 4,114.4), then climbed back into the gap and stopped me at 4,129.50 at 08:22 UK: −£8.42.
Trades
A setup: 1h wick rejection of 4,139 (July high / 1 Oct low): wick to 4,143.3, close back at 4,133.4; sold the 04:00 open. 1R target into the 1h FVG (no gamma rejection). Entered at the 04:00 UK open. Stop 4,145 ($10.80), take-profit 4,123.71 (about 1R) filled at 06:46 UK. Highest against: about 4,142. +£7.94 before £0.04 commission.
Chased a 1h close below the fair value gap (4,120.6): sold at the close of a $19 candle, near its low, with no level to sell from. Entered at 06:59 UK as the 06:00 candle closed at 4,117.72. Best price 4,114.39 (+$4). Stopped at 4,129.50 at 08:22 UK. −£8.38 plus £0.04 commission. Jason: 'I got greedy, I should not have chased.'
Lessons
- Target by what's there: no gamma rejection at the level and a 1-hour fair value gap right below meant 1R was the sensible target. If price closes out of the bottom of the FVG, that's the confirmation for a second trade.
- I got greedy and chased. The close below the gap came at the end of a $19 candle, so I sold near the low with nothing to lean on. A break is only worth selling on a retest of the level it broke, not after the big candle that broke it.