Day 1 · Gold, NY open

Market context

Gold was down on the week (4383 → 4244). It bounced overnight, broke the Asia high and topped at 4315.7, then went sideways for two hours in a 4296.8–4309.5 box before New York opened.

Key levels

The plan

• No trades inside the 4296.8–4309.5 box.
• Short: 5m close below 4296.8, enter on a failed retest from below. Targets 4289, then 4276.
• Long: 5m close above 4309.5 (or 4316 for the stronger version), enter when the retest holds.
• Stops 4–6 points. Stop for the day after 3 losses.

What happened

Price closed below 4296.8, came back up to 4297.8, got rejected and rolled over. Entered short in two layers (4293.81 and 4296.23). The 4296.23 layer hit take profit at 4288.58. The 4293.81 layer was trailed down behind the move; price hit the 4275 London base right at the NY open, bounced, and took out the trailing stop at 4284.35. Later, a $20 5m candle broke the NY opening range and closed right on the Asia low. Stayed out because the entry would have been at the bottom of a huge candle. That breakdown then failed and price rallied back through the opening range.

Lessons

• Waiting for the retest gave a clean entry with a small stop.
• Layering let one part bank profit early while the other ran.
• Skipping the huge breakout candle was right: the move reversed.
• Missed the final long (failed breakdown, then break of the ORB high). Watch for failed breakdowns as a setup.